23 Apr Vietnam and the Cold War and Business

We are approaching the 40th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War back in 1975. As a teenager at the time (yes I’m that old), I transitioned from regular nightmares about getting drafted and wading through rice paddies to relief. But the Cold War, with concomitant fear of potential mutual nuclear destruction, continued for another 15 years after that. Vietnam, in hindsight, was likely provoked artificially and didn’t seem to result in anything good, especially since we were clearly not the victor in the end, and so many lives lost. The Cold War, unfortunately, appears to be re-emerging. Vietnam, however, is emerging in a different way, as an interesting place to do business.

What does all this mean on a finance and entrepreneurship blog? That business opportunities are often shaped by world events and geopolitics. During the War, defense contractors and the like made out like bandits. Fear of nukes created an industry building fallout shelters. When the Berlin Wall fell and the USSR broke up, many US companies rushed into Russia to seek opportunities there. Similarly, after September 11, homeland security-based businesses thrived. Now President Obama has signaled a desire to re-open trade with Cuba, creating the ability to assist the struggling island with infrastructure and technology.

The challenge with depending on world events is their unpredictability. Business with Russia, for example, has suddenly come to a near standstill thanks to their recent incursions into the Ukraine. Very few saw that coming. If you have a business that is subject to normal economic cycles, you can at least count on one thing. The economy will go up and then down and then up again. The only uncertainty is when and to what extent. But developments in the political world can be counted on only for the ability not to count on them. So tread carefully if the whims of a government can impact on your bottom line.